Tariffs actually inhibit the building of factories domestically. The people making capital investment decisions are fine with risk, but paralyzed by uncertainty. The difference being that with risk we know the probability of each possible outcome, how much it will cost vs benefit. Uncertainty is when at least one moving part throws unknowns into the equation.
A factory is a long term investment. Why would a decision maker commit to a gargantuan fixed cost for 20 years without even knowing what the tariff picture will look like tomorrow? Given that Frump is changing tariff policies seemingly based on how much gas is in his bowels from that McD’s breakfast, and btw the next administration will likely turn the tariffs off in 4 years anyway, there is no empirical way to predict even a ballpark expectation for 3 months from now.
The only bigwigs talking about moving a plant to the USA have been planning to do so since Obama was in office, and/or trying to get tax breaks without any solid plans to do anything.
Further the theory that tariffs are based on is invalid because, well, it’s not the goddam 19th century anymore! Global supply chains are just that-global. So no product is exactly made in a single country.
Even worse, the financial incentive that tariffs would provide for corporations moving assembly to the US are a mirage. They pass the cost on to the buyer so they hardly need to care. I’m over simplifying this but I don’t think anyone would read this far.
And even if all the above is wrong, the idea that manufacturing will bring back working class jobs is so absurd that we should really be talking about that more than anything. Assembly is done by robots, ffs! There will probably be a few hundred programmers and maintenance staff to run the system, but the GM factory that employed thousands of workers yesteryear is obsolete.
I’m not just spouting my uninformed opinion. I have studied this in grad school, spent most of my career preparing numbers for investment decisions, and I read what experts say. I don’t think anyone in charge is even considering this since dear leader just shoots from the hip all day, presumably because he thinks that makes him look “tough.” God I’m pissed.